The continuing free agency of Adam Dunn is perplexing. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney is reporting that Dunn may have to settle for a one-year deal for 2009. Let’s take a step back: a 28-year-old left fielder with no injury risk, who hit exactly 40 home runs in each of the last four seasons, and owns a career OPS of 899, may have to settle for a one-year deal. Tough economic times notwithstanding, this is crazy.
To help illustrate just how crazy this is, here are the details on some recent contracts signed by other corner outfielders who have similar offensive (lots) and defensive (not much) value as Dunn. It is important to note that these contracts were all signed prior to the current economic crisis, but even that does not explain the chopped-liver treatment that Dunn is getting this off-season.
In 2005, J. D. Drew, a right fielder, signed a 5 year/$55M deal with the Dodgers at age 29. After the 2006 season, Drew opted out of that deal and signed a 5 year/$70M deal with the Red Sox. Drew’s career OPS? 893. Granted, Drew is a defensive upgrade over Dunn, but he’s also an incredible injury risk (he missed 53 games in 2008), while Dunn routinely plays over 150 games each year (from 2004-2006, he played at least 160).
In 2005, Magglio Ordonez, another oft-injured, but great hitting, right fielder, signed a 5 year/$75M deal with the Tigers at age 31. Ordonez’s career OPS? 890.
In 2003, Bobby Abreu, a right fielder, signed a 5 year/$64M deal with the Phillies at age 29. Recent reporting on ESPN.com has indicated that Abreu is one of the worst defensive outfielders in the game. His career OPS? 902.
If we want to look to the future, Jason Bay, a left fielder, will be a free agent after the 2009 season, when he will be 31. Bay’s career OPS? 891. Any chance Bay will have to settle for a one-year contract next year?
What all of these comparisons tell us is that Dunn is not getting a fair shake this off-season and is incredibly undervalued by GMs throughout MLB. Most likely, the state of rational thinking in MLB is more to blame than the state of the economy. Here’s the proof: just last month, Raul Ibanez signed a 3 year/$31.5M deal with the Phillies. Yes, that Raul Ibanez. The 36-year-old left fielder with the 818 career OPS. The amazing thing about this deal is that the Phillies actually took a look at the free agent field and chose to fill their left field hole with Ibanez rather than Dunn. In looking ahead to defending their World Series championship, the Phillies consciously opted for the worse player.
Why the lack of love for Dunn? I don’t know. It could be J.P. Ricciardi’s nonsense comments about Dunn a couple of years ago or just the unwillingness of MLB GMs to understand that a one-dimensional player is supremely valuable if his one dimension consists of hitting home runs and getting on base. Either way, Dunn is getting screwed.
If I were a GM, I’d love to have 9 Adam Dunns in my lineup (in the AL, I don’t want Dunn pitching). Clogged bases lead to a hell of a lot of runs.
Tags: Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, clogging the basepaths, dunderheaded GMs, J.D. Drew, Jason Bay, Magglio Ordonez, OPS, Raul Ibanez
(4.88 out of 5)
I always wondered what a line-up of all 1999 Pedro’s would be like. Sure, the offense would be terrible, and Los Pedros would likely lose a lot at 1-0, even with Pedro relieving Pedro. But the OF could throw out pretty much anyone, and no one could steal on the Pedro at catcher. Maybe if Los Pedros put Nelson de la Rosa (the midget) as DH, they’d be guaranteed a base runner via BB every time through the lineup. No way Nelson takes the field though.
Am I supposed to say something about Dunn? FanGraphs quantifies his defense as really bad. People who the can qualitatively assess defense say it’s horrific. So, for example, Dunn (OPS+ 130) is probably not as valuable as Drew (OPS+ 129). The FanGraph stuff is pretty cool, it also tells me that Dunn has been unclutch the past several years (he knew how to win in 2004 though; he apparently forgot in the interim).
Everything I have seen says that Dunn’s defense is very bad as well, so I agree that Drew is more valuable, when he plays. That being said, if your options are to sign Drew, at 31, to 5 years/$70M or Dunn, at 28, to less years for less annual money, I’d probably go with Dunn as the better value. At least you’re less likely to buy any decline years.
If you look up Bill James’ “Three True Outcomes” in the dictionary, you should find a picture of Adam Dunn…I just looked at Dunn’s stats from last year, and 50% of his plate appearances ended with either a BB, a K, or a HR. And this is no anomaly. In his career, a shade over 49% of his PAs have ended with one of those three outcomes.
Can anyone think of a player that might rival this percentage?
p.s. I forgot to add in his intentional BB’s when I ran the numbers…these would probably add to the percentage slightly.