(updated to reflect Abreu and Dunn’s signings)

It turns out a simple linear model can explain team run scoring a little better than OPS.  What’s nice about this approach is that by using this method to rank players, we’re also directly seeing how players contributed to their respective teams.  So, who were the leaders last year?

Linear team runs predict team run scoring, and were derived in my last post.

LTR = -419.14 + 1.50 * HR + 1.46 * 3B + 0.94 * 2B + 0.50 * 1B + 0.21 * BB

Linear runs created (LRC) uses the same formula without the intercept.

The (AA) columns stand for above average.  LRC is accumulated so, obviously, playing a lot helps rack up the runs.  To put this in perspective, we can look at how many runs a player creates in a single at bat.  Pujols is a god among men, and I can’t believe Nerdius got him in the third round last year of our draft.  Stupid injury rumors.

I’m not sure what to make of this order of players.  The top 10 makes sense to me, but they’re not in the order that I would choose if I were just to figure things off the cuff.  On the other hand, the weights that lead to the formula were developed in the most impartial way I can imagine.   It’s also important that LRC is a counting stat.  Just like a player who racks up the ABs will get more hits, the same player will rack up LRC.  Some of these players get to the plate a whole lot.  LRC like walks, but it isn’t as enamored as some other methods I’ve seen.

Reyes is the real surprise here.  We’re not accounting for his steals at all, and LRC has him as the third best player in 2008?  LRC loves triples, it seems that this is the way it accounts for speed.  LRC also has no park adjustment, so Reyes park could be giving him some help here.  Last summer I made it to my first Mets game, and sure enough, I witnessed one of Reyes 19 triples.  It was very exciting, and my computer obviously understands this.  Hopefully Jacoby’s efforts this summer can bring in a little more excitement.

What about some free agents still left?

If I were running a team and had an open OF slot, I would be trying my hardest to get Manny for two years.

Update The Angels just grabbed Abreu for one year @ 5 mil, which is an absolute steal.

Update 2 Dunn is now gone for 2 years @ 10 mil per.  I’m not as high on Dunn as some of the other nerds, I think his game is tied to a set of skills that require the right kind of context.  Walking and hitting solo dongs for the Nats don’t really strike me as the key to contention.  That said, he’d improve any number of teams, and the Mets contingent is probably annoyed to see him off the board.  I still contend that whoever decides to put up with the Manny circus will be the real winner.

Tags: free agents, linear runs created, statistics, top 10

This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 10th, 2009 at 10:05 pm and is filed under Nerdtron's computer. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.