My gut reaction is that Posada has not had a HOF career. I would imagine that most people would have the same reaction. However, I think my gut is wrong. Unfortunately, it is my suspicion that many HOF voters actually go with their gut when formulating their ballots. I’ve heard way too many arguments for HOF candidacy based on how “feared” or “dominant” a player was to feel comfortable that HOF voters are thoroughly and properly examining each player’s candidacy prior to casting their vote. But that’s for a different column.

So, let’s take a look at Posada’s career numbers. So far (and he has three years left on his current contract), Posada, 37, has appeared as a catcher in 1390 games and has played another 52 at DH and 25 at 1B. For his career, Posada is a .277/.380/.477 hitter, with 221 career home runs. His career OPS+ is 124. Posada has had four truly great seasons (2000, 2003, 2004, and 2007). These are solid, if not spectacular, career numbers and would not warrant HOF consideration if Posada was a corner infielder or outfielder. Given the historical shortage of premium offensive catchers, however, the bar is set much lower for induction at this position.

Let’s take a look at all of the catchers since the Dead Ball Era that have a career OPS+ equal to or greater than Posada.

So the list of catchers with a better career OPS+ than Posada is pretty short. All of the players, with the exception of Torre, Tenace, and Piazza, are in the HOF. Piazza will be a first ballot inductee. As for Torre and Tenace, both were excellent hitters, but played only a portion of their respective careers at catcher, with neither player catching more than 903 games (the equivalent of less than 7 years as a full-time catcher). Posada has caught 1390 games so far. If he averages 110 games caught over the three years remaining on this contract, Posada will have 1720 games behind the plate, which stacks up well against the HOF class in terms of longevity at the position. That sort of surprises me – Posada has been durable, but I would not have expected that he has a realistic shot at catching as many career games as Bench and Berra.

Among his contemporaries, I would put Posada as the third best catcher of his generation, behind Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez. Pudge had some truly excellent seasons (even if he didn’t deserve the AL MVP in 1999), although his career numbers have been significantly watered down by truly mediocre offensive performance over the past four seasons (Pudge has a career OPS+ of 110); his defense was superior. And it goes without saying that Piazza is the greatest offensive catcher in MLB history.

Based on this brief analysis, when Posada’s offensive numbers are compared to past catchers, as well as his contemporaries, it appears that Posada may very well have put together a HOF career. It’s not a sure thing, but I think he’s there and I would vote for him if given the opportunity. This analysis, of course, does not consider defensive value. My impression is that Posada has been a below average defensive catcher. Unfortunately, I am not smart enough to figure out defensive value objectively, so my decision on his candidacy is based purely on offensive value. If Posada is able to put up respectable numbers over the final years of his career, I think it will only make the merits of his candidacy more obvious and help to overcome his defensive shortcomings.

So I say Jorge Posada is a Hall of Famer. What do you think?